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The application features of seasonal-cyclic patterns in international financial markets
Репозитарій Національного Авіаційного Університету
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
The application features of seasonal-cyclic patterns in international financial markets
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| Creator |
Смерічевський, Сергій Францович
Smerichevskyi, Serhii Frantsovych Dzhusov, Oleksii Anatoliiovych Sardak, Sergii Eduardovych Klimova, Olena Ihorivna |
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| Subject |
seasonality
cyclicality financial market index forecasting |
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| Description |
The presence of cyclic patterns in the development of society is a recognized and confirmed fact. The cyclical nature of the economy was hypothesised by William Herschel as early as 1801, when he suggested the existence of a relationship between the cycles of sunspots and the weather, which he believed could affect the price of the crop and, ultimately, the economy as a whole (Schwager, 1996). Since that time, many scientists have dealt with the issues of cyclicality in the economy, and a large number of scientific works are devoted to this problem. However, cycle theory is still more developed at the theoretical than at the practical level (Sardak, 2016; Sardak & Sukhoteplyi, 2013). The financial market, as an integral part of the global socio-economic system, also has a cyclical nature, so the knowledge and understanding of the cyclic laws, their practical use for the formation of forecasts on the direction of market movement can bring significant profits to entities engaged in investment activities (Afonin et al., 2008; Poletaev & Savel'eva, 1993). Therefore, applied research in this area is up-and-coming. The paper deals with the topical issue of studying cyclic patterns in the economy and their practical application for the forecasts on the development of financial markets. The work aims to establish the features of the seasonal-cyclic patterns "The January barometer" and "The first five days of January" in the international financial markets in current conditions and to develop recommendations for the practical application of these patterns in the investment activities. The US stock market as an integral part of the World financial market was chosen as a basis for research. The research was conducted by statistical processing of data on the values of the broad market index Standard & Poor's-500 for the period from 1950 to 2019. The study showed that the formation of forecasts about the annual growth or decline of the stock market index using the seasonal-cyclic patterns "The January barometer" and "The first five days of January" can show a high result in cases where the growth of the Standard & Poor's-500 index by the results of both the first five days of January and the results of the entire month of January of this year is a positive value. Otherwise, forecasting based on these instruments is not advisable. The best results (the forecast efficiency was 93.3%) were achieved with the joint application of both cyclic patterns. The practical application of the research results makes it possible to improve the efficiency of investment activities in international financial markets. |
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| Date |
2020-06-01T08:10:21Z
2020-06-01T08:10:21Z 2019 |
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| Type |
Article
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| Identifier |
S. Smerichevskyi, O. Dzhusov, S. Sardak, O Klimova. The application features of seasonal-cyclic patterns in international financial markets - Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, Volume 23, Issue 5, 2019
1528-2635-23-5-460 http://er.nau.edu.ua/handle/NAU/43157 |
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| Language |
en
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Publisher |
Allied Business Academies
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