NAU Harvester System
Correlation of yield of grain crops with changes in the index of solar activity
Вісник астрономічної школи
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Correlation of yield of grain crops with changes in the index of solar activity
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| Creator |
Vidmachenko A.P.
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| Date |
2019
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| Source |
Astronomical School’s Report, 2019, Volume 15, Issue 1, P. 11-18
2411-6602 |
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| Identifier |
http://astro.nau.edu.ua/papers/AstSR_2019_Vol_15_Iss_1_P_11.pdf
10.18372/2411-6602.15.03 |
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| Language |
ru
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| Description |
The energy of the Sun transformed on the Earth's surface into heat is the main component in the formation of the Earth's climate. Therefore, climate processes significantly depend on changes in the solar activity index (CA). This can be the basis for projections of crop yields. We considered the time series of data on the yield of grain crops as the imposition of a long-term trend, several cyclical components and a random component. The data between points on the time scale for the index of solar activity Sn is consistent with the monthly, and for yield, with annual intervals. The dynamics of changes in yield curves of grain crops has a wave character. The grain yield curves smoothed over a 47-year study period highlighted a general trend. Spectral analysis revealed short waves of changes in grain yield with periods of 2–3 years and with amplitudes for different crops from 0.3–0.5 to 2–2.5 tons/hectare. The values of the harvest depend most of all on the values of the CA indices in the months of sowing grain, going out into the pipe and ripening. The results of the calculations show that high values of the correlation coefficients are achieved by comparing the course of the yield of selected grain crops not with the 11-year, but with the 22-year magnetic cycle of Hale's solar activity. After subtracting it, spectral analysis with a confidence of 90% indicated the existence of quasi-periodic components with a period value of about 2.134±0.062 years. The search for possible periodic processes in the Solar System, which could cause a change in yields with a marked period value, showed that the gravitational interaction of the planets has the same periodicity at opposition of Earth and Mars. Analysis of the data presented in the work shows that the maximum yields were in those years when at distances less than 0.55 AU. the planets were in opposition in spring and summer during the main growing season of the analyzed crops.
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| Publisher |
National Aviation University
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| Format |
application/pdf
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